The political spotlight this weekend is on Japan, where the LDP Presidential Election (Friday, Oct 3) continues to ripple through markets. Polls show a tight race between Kōzō Izumi and Sanae Takaichi, a contest that could shape Japan’s fiscal stance, defense policy, and BoJ-government dynamics.
JPY traders will be watching closely for outcomes and any coalition maneuvering.
Also, keep an eye on the Israel-Hamas headlines.
In Europe, a trio of ECB speeches kicks off the week, with De Guindos (03:15 ET), Lane (04:00 ET), and Lagarde (13:00 ET) all on deck. Markets will parse for guidance after sticky September inflation.
At 04:30 ET, the Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct) is expected to rebound slightly from -9.2, while at 05:00 ET, Eurozone retail sales are seen flat at +0.1% MoM, still weak on a yearly basis (-2.2% YoY).
Sterling gets a highlight at 13:30 ET with BoE Governor Bailey’s speech, his first remarks since the dovish shift at the last MPC.
The APAC session rounds out with business and consumer sentiment data: NZ Business Confidence (Q3) at 17:00 ET, UK BRC retail sales (Sep) at 19:01 ET, and Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence (Oct) at 19:30 ET.
