Has inflation edged lower? CPI inflation figures for February catches investors at a sensitive point, as the impact of tariffs and uncertainty mount. Live coverage.
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Hoping that January’s rise was temporary
It seems like a lose-lose situation for Stocks. Investors are still reeling from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, and especially the great level of uncertainty that comes with it. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January showed a bump up in both headline and core CPI – the latter excludes volatile food and energy prices.
The economic calendar points to a small decline in all measures, and this is based on hopes that beginning-of-the-year adjustments pushed prices higher, while February’s figures is a return to normal.
February is also Trump’s first full month in office. One of the reasons for his victory was the high inflation Americans suffered from during President Joe Biden’s time. An increase would complicate matters for the Commander-in-Chief, while a drop would allow him to celebrate.
Another hot inflation report would boost the US Dollar and send Stocks and Gold down on fear of a higher path of interest rates. Conversely, a drop would be dismissed, as it fails to reflect prices rises that are a result of tariffs.
All in all, it is hard to see how the gloomy mood would disappear – nor high volatility.
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