The World Trade Organization now forecasts a 0.2% contraction in global goods trade this year, adding to the risk-off tone. Meanwhile, the weakening DXY has enhanced gold’s relative appeal for foreign investors.
Fed Policy and Economic Data Offer Mixed Signals
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution on rate cuts, pointing to persistent inflation and uneven economic momentum. Markets still price in 86 basis points of cuts by year-end 2025, with July flagged as the earliest likely move.
U.S. jobless claims declined to 215,000, suggesting labor market resilience, though continuing claims ticked up to 1.885 million. March housing data was mixed—permits rose 1.6%, while starts slipped.
Outlook: Momentum Intact, but Caution Prevails
Despite the recent pullback, gold’s broader trend remains constructive. As long as rate uncertainty lingers and trade risks persist, investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is likely to remain firm.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold holds above $3,322 support as trade risks and a weak dollar sustain safe-haven demand. Silver eyes $33.11 resistance, but momentum hinges on holding key support near $32.12.
