/*
Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that
the advertisement is never cached together with the page.
BvNTp – is a forced measure to prevent JS function from
being overwritten.
*/
function load_advertisement_BvNTp(){
let adSlot = document.getElementById(‘ad-slot-container-BvNTp’);
fetch(‘/load-advertisement/26/?is_sidebar=False’)
.then(response => response.text())
.then(html => {
adSlot.outerHTML = html;
})
.catch(error => {
console.error(‘Error fetching the template:’, error);
});
}
load_advertisement_BvNTp();
New Zealand Economy: Employment, Inflation, and RBNZ Interest Rate Cuts in Focus
New Zealand’s economic landscape is under scrutiny as upcoming employment data and anticipated interest rate decisions influence the value of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). On Tuesday, all eyes are on the quarterly employment change figures, which, according to Bloomberg analyst surveys, are expected to show a marginal improvement of +0.1% compared to the previous quarter’s -0.1%. This prior figure marked the lowest point in nearly five years, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market since early 2024.
Persistent labor market weakness raises concerns that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts than previously anticipated. This potential shift in monetary policy is a key factor impacting the NZD’s performance.
const imageElement = document.getElementById(‘pinch-to-zoom-img-7804’);
if (imageElement) {
panzoom(imageElement, {
maxZoom: 4.0,
minZoom: 0.5,
contain: ‘outside’,
});
}
}, 100);
}
}
}”
x-init=”$watch(‘imgModal’, value => initPanzoom())”
class=”flex justify-center “>
New Zealand Inflation CPI Y/Y
Source: Stats NZ – RBNZ
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/inflation
Currently, New Zealand’s annual inflation rate (CPI Y/Y) stands at 2.5%. Surveys suggest a median inflation rate of 2.10% by the end of 2025, remaining steady through 2026. These figures align with the government’s target range of 1%-3% in the medium term and 2% in the longer term.
Market consensus overwhelmingly points to an imminent interest rate cut by the RBNZ. Bloomberg’s analyst surveys reveal that 100% of participants expect a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming May 28th, 2025 meeting, bringing the interest rate to 3.5%. This follows a previous 25 basis point cut on April 8th, 2025, with further cuts signaled throughout the year.
/*
Requesting advertisement by calling an endpoint assures that
the advertisement is never cached together with the page.
UCxlR – is a forced measure to prevent JS function from
being overwritten.
*/
function load_advertisement_UCxlR(){
let adSlot = document.getElementById(‘ad-slot-container-UCxlR’);
fetch(‘/load-advertisement/30/?is_sidebar=False’)
.then(response => response.text())
.then(html => {
adSlot.outerHTML = html;
})
.catch(error => {
console.error(‘Error fetching the template:’, error);
});
}
load_advertisement_UCxlR();
NZD/USD Technical Analysis and Key Levels – Daily chart
Since the beginning of 2025, the NZD has been trading within a widening pattern against the US dollar. However, the NZD’s upward trajectory faced a setback in early April 2025 due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, pushing the price down to the 0.5480 range, below its yearly open of approximately 0.5600. The NZD has since recovered, regaining lost ground and rising by nearly 10%, briefly surpassing the 0.6000 psychological level, where it currently encounters resistance.
const imageElement = document.getElementById(‘pinch-to-zoom-img-4767’);
if (imageElement) {
panzoom(imageElement, {
maxZoom: 4.0,
minZoom: 0.5,
contain: ‘outside’,
});
}
}, 100);
}
}
}”
x-init=”$watch(‘imgModal’, value => initPanzoom())”
class=”flex justify-center “>
NZD/USD Daily Chart Technical Analysis
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/
Technical analysis indicates that the NZD/USD price action is trading above critical support levels, including daily, weekly, and monthly pivot points, as well as its fast and intermediate moving averages. These levels, ranging from 0.5940 to 0.5820, provide significant support. The recent upward movement faces resistance near April 2025 highs, just below 0.6000, which also coincides with the upper boundary of the widening formation. A break above 0.6000 could pave the way for further gains, while a drop below key support levels could lead to further declines towards the pattern’s lower boundary.
Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic indicators reflect the current price action, showing overbought conditions since early April 2025 without any divergences.
In conclusion, New Zealand’s economic situation, particularly the employment data and the RBNZ’s anticipated interest rate decisions, continues to play a crucial role in shaping the NZD’s performance against the USD. Traders and investors are closely monitoring these developments for potential market movements.
Opinions are the authors’; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
