Economists and strategists were already addressing the question as Trump began to lead the polls in September 2024.
After the operation in Venezuela, the doors opened wide for outside interventions.
The thing is, when it’s far from us, it’s not such a big deal (Iraq in 2003, Venezuela today). It’s particularly the case when OECD interests don’t get actively compromised.
The bigger issue is when a friend, an ally, or a sovereign territory is threatened. Things change, pacts and promises break, and the situation gets all over the place.
The immediate reactions in Markets at the Globex open on Sunday were major down gaps in Equities, the US Dollar, and risk assets. At the same time, Gold kept shining amid the geopolitical turmoil – Note: These flows are now sharply reversing after Trump’s comments!
This start to 2026 is simply the realization of most of what was feared in 2025.
A new world order where polarized geographic powers will dominate is not far off – it’s already happening with Russia and China, and now the US could be heading in this direction.
Canada’s PM, Mark Carney, actually gave a beautiful speech on that aspect, which I strongly encourage you all to listen to – “The Rules-Based Order is fading”.
America First doesn’t mean it’s going to be about the Mainland US only, as was said in our past week’s Mid-Week Recap.
Today, as Trump arrived in Davos, he calmed the tone slightly by saying he won’t use force to acquire Greenland, but he still did not back down entirely from his words.
TACO or not? Traders are undecided about today’s Stock market rebound.
