EUR/USD Current price: 1.1532
- The Middle East conflict is far from over, and market players know it.
- Lack of negotiations as the five-day pause ends pushes Oil prices higher.
- EUR/USD is on its way to retest yearly lows at 1.1410.
The US Dollar (USD) advances alongside Oil, and as the risk sentiment deteriorates. The picture is not new, as financial markets are trading on headlines coming from the Middle East, as they have in the last three weeks.
Monday brought hopes, as US President Donald Trump announced a five-day ceasefire in the Iran war, but optimism did not last long. Tensions remain the same, and the Strait of Hormuz is closed for those not taking Iran’s side. Back and forth attacks between Israel and Tehran continue, as only the US refrained from launching attacks, although not from announcing the deployment of forces in the area.
The five-day break had two main goals: to open the door for talks, and to cool down Oil prices. As the week unfolded, crude is back on the bullish side, and nothing suggests negotiations are even taking place, let alone progressing. Speculative interest is back to bet on higher oil prices, mounting inflationary pressures, and financial chaos.
Meanwhile, the absence of relevant macroeconomic data exacerbates risk-related trading. On a positive note, the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose by 210K in the week ended March 21, meeting expectations and higher than the previous 205K.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair resumed its slide and trades around 1.1530 and gains downward momentum early in the American session.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is bearish as spot slips below all its moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1580 and above the 100-period SMA around 1.1558, keeping the pair capped by layered dynamic resistance. Downside potential is reinforced by the 14-period Momentum Indicator turning negative and extending lower, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-40s, signaling persistent selling pressure.
In the daily chart, EUR/USD is poised to extend its slump, as spot holds decisively below a firmly bearish 20-day SMA near 1.1580, while below the clustered 100- and 200-day SMAs around 1.1690–1.1680, keeping the broader topside structure capped. The Momentum indicator turned lower after failing to recover above its midline and continues to weaken, while the RSI indicator aims south at around 42, indicating that selling pressure dominates the pair.
Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day SMA around 1.1580, with a break above this level exposing the longer moving averages near 1.1680.On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent closing low at 1.1510, followed by the psychological 1.1500 handle, where a decisive break would open the way toward the yearly low at 1.1411 as the next bearish objective.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
