- The US dollar initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, only to find buyers in this market.
- The Swiss franc pays much less in the way of interest than the US dollar.
- So, I do favor the upside, but the question is whether or not the US dollar can pick itself up off the floor against several currencies.
Keep in mind that the session on Wednesday will feature a slew of new tariffs coming out of the United States, as Trump has promised, and we don’t really know how good or bad those will be for the market. Perhaps they won’t be as negative as one’s thought, and if that’s the case, you may see a rally in the US dollar.
On the other hand, if you see absolute bedlam and chaos in the markets, this might be one of the places where the US dollar gets really hit. There are concerns about the US heading into a recession, but the Swiss economy is surrounded by the European Union. So, there are some concerns there as well. And the interest rate differential pays you to hang on to this trade to the upside.
On a Move Higher
If we were to break above the 0.89 level, we would be above the crucial 200 day EMA and a large round psychologically significant figure. So, I think we’ve got a shot of this market going much higher, perhaps the 0.90 level. The 0.8750 level underneath is going to be a significant support level that we must watch. It will be crucial. And therefore, if we were to break down below there, it’s likely that we would see a lot of selling and negativity entering this market. That being said, as things stand right now, we are range bound, probably waiting for those tariff announcements.
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