Lower European Gas prices (TTF) are having an impact: according to an analysis of ship tracking data by Bloomberg, LNG shipments from Qatar have recently been diverted away from Europe to India, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
U.S. supply risks loom as winter Gas demand uncertain
“Overall, European LNG imports between December 1 and 9 fell compared to the same period in November. The fact that Gas storage levels in the EU have not declined more rapidly so far is likely due to the recent mild temperatures. However, if heating demand rises and LNG imports continue to weaken at the same time, storage withdrawals could reach a critical level.”
“There are also risks with regard to supply: in particular, supply from the US could be less generous than previously thought. This could be the case, for example, if domestic demand turns out to be higher than assumed so far. The EIA, for example, expects US Gas prices to rise this winter due to an impending cold spell.”
“Recently, however, prices have fallen again as temperatures have been milder in mid-December. In the medium term, increasing electricity consumption by data centers could also significantly increase Gas demand. This was one of the reasons why the IEA raised its forecasts for US electricity consumption at the beginning of this year.”
