The Euro (EUR) is soft, down a marginal 0.1% as it drifts back toward Thursday’s low just above 1.15, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
PMI’s offer mixed read
“The latest preliminary PMI’s for November offered a mixed read on the euro area’s economy, with a modest disappointment in manufacturing (49.7 vs. 50.1 exp. & 50 prev.) alongside an upside surprise in services (53.1 vs. 52.8 exp. & 53 prev.). The readings remain modest on either side of 50, but remain a net positive on balance given the relatively larger share of services in the euro zone economy.”
“Yield spreads are offering the EUR renewed support following their latest push to the upper end of their recent range, largely reflecting lower US yields as rate expectations in the euro area remain steady. Finally, comments from ECB President Lagarde have been uncharacteristically candid as she suggested that Europe’s export-driven growth model was ‘based on a disappearing world’ and that governments needed to act with a greater sense of urgency as they seek to deliver growth.”
“The EUR continues to trade defensively and its tentative attempt at stabilization is looking increasingly fragile. Immediate support is expected around Thursday’s low just above 1.15 and additional support would be expected around the early November low in the mid/upper-1.14s followed by the early August low around 1.14. We are cautiously neutral while acknowledging the risk of further weakness. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1480 and 1.1580.”
