The Euro (EUR) is flat, trading unchanged from Thursday’s close with overnight releases limited to as expected, final CPI figures from Germany and France. Thursday’s ECB was constructive for the EUR, as President Lagarde confirmed a decidedly neutral tone, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
EUR is consolidating Thursday’s ECB-driven gains
“Lagarde highlighted the euro area’s ‘resilient’ domestic demand and saw growth risks as being balanced and stated that the disinflationary process was over. Markets have faded the bulk of their easing bias but we continue to see this as a potential source of fundamental strength with markets still pricing about 10bpts of easing through July 2026.”
“Thursday’s gains delivered another break above the decisive, descending trendline drawn from the July highs. Momentum is modestly bullish with an RSI in the mid-50s, and the near-term balance of risk once again appears to favor strength. We see limited resistance ahead of 1.18 and the July 1 high 1.1829. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1650 and 1.1750.”
