Fitch Ratings still expects US growth, but downgrades sectors on deterioration concerns

The Fitch Ratings Agency downgraded key US industry sectors to “deteriorating” on Monday, citing still-unclear policy guidance impacting US credit conditions. Even after months of turbulence, the Trump administration appears no closer to settling into a steady governance structure, specifically when it comes to trade and tariffs, two key aspects that can have significant impacts on US consumers in particular.

Key highlights

• Policy risks cloud US credit outlook.
• 25% of US sector outlooks have been downgraded to ‘deteriorating’ in 2025.
• Fitch cites increasing uncertainty, slowing growth, and higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.
• Recession risk has declined thanks to easing US-China trade tensions, but over business and consumer confidence has weakened.
• US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast increased to 1.5% from 1.2%, but momentum is expected to continue slowing through the year.