The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is the most rate-sensitive of the major US benchmark stock indices. If the Fed removes its easing bias and the dot plot shifts higher (implying one rate hike in 2027), the Nasdaq 00 should underperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Monday’s monstrous gap-up rally in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures), triggered by the US-Iran interim peace deal, has started to show signs of near-term bullish exhaustion below the current all-time high area of 30,728/795.
Watch the 30,530 key short-term pivotal resistance, with intermediate supports at 30,015 and 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).
A break below the critical 29,700 suggests that Monday’s gap-up is likely a bull trap, and the bears may gain the upper hand to push prices lower towards 29,170 and even the key medium-term support of 28,280 (also the 50-day moving average).
On the flipside, a break above 30,530 is likely to probe the current all-time high area of 30,728/795 (Tuesday, 16 June’s bearish reaction), and a clearance above 30,795 triggers a potential extension of the bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next intermediate resistances at 31,125 and 31,450 (Fibonacci extension).
