- Gold prices rebounded markedly past the $3,400 mark per troy ounce.
- The US Dollar remained well on the defensive on trade concerns.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged in July.
Spot gold regained strong balance on Tuesday, climbing past the $3,430 mark per troy ounce to hit fresh multi-week highs on the back of the intense sell-off in the Greenback, which prompted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to recede to two-week troughs.
Also aiding in the upside impulse, the US debt market showed another day of marked pullbacks in yields across different time frames.
Meanwhile, the precious metal remained underpinned by unabated trade concerns, with the epicentre in a potential trade deal between the United States and the European Union before President Trump’s August 1 deadline.
Adding to the sour momentum hurting the US Dollar, President Trump maintained its anti-Powell narrative well in place, at some point suggesting that Chair Powell “will be out soon.” Still on the subject, earlier on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he does not see the need for Powell to leave right now.
Moving forward, investors are expected to closely follow advanced gauges of US and global business activity later in the week, as well as the usual weekly report on the US labour market.
Gold’s short-term technical outlook
Further gains could see the June high at $3,451 (June 16) revisited, just ahead of the record peak at $3,500 (April 22) and Fibonacci extensions of the 2024–2025 rally at $3,912, and $4,127.
If sellers regain control, the loss of the June trough at $3,244 (June 30) could trigger a test of the interim 100-day SMA at $3,238. This area is also reinforced by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 rally. From this point, the May base appears at $3,120 (May 15).
Momentum indicators lean bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen past 64, although an Average Directional Index (ADX) around 10 confirms a weakening trend.
