The 50-day moving average remains the most critical level on the chart. A breakdown below this level could open the door to further downside with initial targets at $2880.25 and $2832.72. A break below those levels would likely shift focus toward the 200-day moving average, threatening the broader bullish setup.
Gold is currently straddling the $3000.28 pivot, with resistance near $3062.20. A sustained move above $3062.20 could bring the record high at $3167.84 back into play. On the downside, failure to hold above $3,000 may push prices back toward the 50-day average, risking a shift in sentiment.
Gold Prices Supported by Weaker Dollar and Fed Expectations
The U.S. dollar index ticked lower Tuesday, making gold more attractive for overseas buyers. Spot gold has now gained nearly 15% year-to-date, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, firm central bank buying, and increased flows into gold-backed ETFs.
Rate cut expectations continue to rise, with markets pricing in over 100 basis points of easing by year-end. The odds of a May rate cut have jumped to 55%, according to futures markets. Lower interest rates tend to benefit gold, which offers no yield but gains when real yields fall.
Global Trade Tensions Intensify Gold’s Safe Haven Appeal
Fresh tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have rattled global markets, raising the risk of a full-blown trade war. China’s response—a 34% levy on all U.S. goods—along with threats of retaliation from the EU, has elevated demand for gold as a geopolitical hedge. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has pushed back above 4%, a reflection of investor concerns over inflation and weaker demand for U.S. debt.
Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds While $2948 Support Stays Intact
Gold maintains a bullish bias while trading above the 50-day moving average. A break above $3062.20 could set the stage for a push toward $3167.84. However, failure to hold the $3,000 level could signal consolidation or deeper retracement. Traders will closely watch the Fed minutes this week for confirmation of policy direction, which could drive the next leg in gold prices.
