The Japanese Yen’s (JPY) solid current account and foreign asset position continue to pressure USD/JPY lower, even as the rare decoupling from US Treasury yields unfolds. While this divergence may prove short-lived, markets could settle into a lower USD/JPY as Fed cuts materialize later this year. A July BoJ rate hike remains on the table, though sharp yen gains could force a delay, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
USD/JPY slides as Yen finds defensive support
“The defensive cover for the yen (its large current account and net foreign asset surplus) has seen USD/JPY lead the adjustment lower in the dollar. The negative correlation between US Treasury yields and the dollar is very rare, but it can happen.”
“We doubt this correlation will be with us for a long time, but we suspect financial markets eventually shift to a lower USD/JPY and softer Treasury yields in the second half once the Fed starts cutting.”
“A left-field risk is that Japan does somehow agree to deliver a weaker USD/JPY as part of US trade negotiations. We see scope for a Bank of Japan rate hike in July, though heavy losses in USD/JPY could be one of the risks that delays the hike this year.”
