Following the bullish action seen at the beginning of the week, EUR/USD turned south on Wednesday and erased a large portion of its weekly gains. The pair stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.1550 on Thursday, while the near-term technical outlook highlights a lack of buyer interest.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.27% | 0.08% | 0.83% | 0.87% | 0.58% | 0.44% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | -0.08% | 0.31% | 1.03% | 1.05% | 0.78% | 0.64% | |
| GBP | 0.27% | 0.08% | 0.30% | 1.10% | 1.15% | 0.85% | 0.65% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.31% | -0.30% | 0.71% | 0.77% | 0.46% | 0.26% | |
| CAD | -0.83% | -1.03% | -1.10% | -0.71% | 0.06% | -0.24% | -0.39% | |
| AUD | -0.87% | -1.05% | -1.15% | -0.77% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.49% | |
| NZD | -0.58% | -0.78% | -0.85% | -0.46% | 0.24% | 0.29% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.44% | -0.64% | -0.65% | -0.26% | 0.39% | 0.49% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Latest headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East create confusion and force investors to adopt a cautious stance.
While United States (US) President Donald Trump insists that Iran is negotiationg and that they are willing to make a deal, Iran has reportedly rejected the US’ 15-point plan to end the war.
In response, Iran issued their own five conditions, which include guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations, in addition to having authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
In the meantime, Isarel announced early Thursday that it launched a “wide scale” wave of strikes, and the US Central Command reported that aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is attacking military targets inside Iran.
The US Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data later in the day, which is likely to be ignored by market participants. Hence, the risk mood could remain as the primary driver of EUR/USD’s action in the near term.
US stock index futures are down between 0.5% and 0.7% in the early European session on Thursday and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index is losing nearly 1%. In case safe-haven flows continue to dominate the action in the second half of the day, EUR/USD could come under renewed bearish pressure.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1557. The pair fluctuates in between the 50-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reflecting a lack of clear directional bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 remains in neutral territory, framing the latest pullback as a pause rather than a decisive momentum reversal, but contracting Bollinger Bands signal reduced volatility.
The 50-period SMA and the lower Bollinger Band form the first support area at 1.1543-1.1535 ahead of 1.1500 (static level, round level) and 1.1460 (static level). On the topside, the 20-period SMA aligns as an interim resistance level at 1.1580 before 1.1630 (upper Bollinger Band) and 1.1685 (200-period SMA).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
