Markets appear to be turning the page on the Israel-Iran conflict, which had briefly supported North American currencies. The US Dollar found a bid as crowded short positions were unwound, driven by rebalancing flows and position closures.
The Canadian Dollar also benefited, buoyed by a surge in Oil prices that temporarily reinforced the outlook for Canada’s energy-linked economy.
However, both narratives have now faded. The Dollar Index has returned to the lower end of its monthly range, while the Loonie has weakened in tandem with Oil giving back its war premium.
With geopolitical catalysts fading, market attention is shifting back to incoming economic data for the next directional cues on USD and CAD.
Read More: Nasdaq reaches ATH, Equities around the globe from Fear to Greed
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North American Equity Indices Snapshot
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North-American Indices performance since last Monday – June 25, 2025
Equity markets across North America are firmly back in “greed” territory, capitalizing on the recent shift in sentiment surrounding the Middle East. Selling momentum in indices continues to be short-lived, often countered quickly by eager dip buyers.
The S&P 500 is trading comfortably above the 6,000 level and has just broken through 6,100, while the Nasdaq has climbed to fresh all-time highs.
Meanwhile, Canada’s TSX remains above its record levels but is beginning to show signs of hesitation.
The latest Canadian inflation data surprised to the upside, with a 0.6% month-over-month reading—highlighting the early impact of tariff-related disruptions.
US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors
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USD vs other Majors, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView.
The picture for the US Dollar is more rosy than it was a week ago, with the Greenback lagging against all currencies except for the Loonie with which the USD is broadly unchanged.
Market participants are investing in Dollar-denominated instruments more carefully, notably hedging their currency exposure through cross-currency options which gives underlying weakness to the USD.
Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors
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CAD vs other Majors, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView
European currencies are taking the lead against their North American counterparts again on this Canadian Dollar performance picture.
Weaker oil and higher Canadian inflation is not helping to bolster CAD performance – Markets will need to see further economic progress from the Land of Maple Syrup to see more strength in its currency.
Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD
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USDCAD 4H Chart, June 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView
USDCAD found some relief as war flows benefitted to the US Dollar even more than the CAD despite preceding higher Oil prices.
A 2.5 handle reversal took the pair towards the 1.37 range and after tipping at 1.38, sellers are coming back.
Prices are consolidating in the 1.3740 Current Pivot, and contained between the 4H 200 and 50-period Moving Averages – any breakout above or below these containing MAs will give more decisive directions for newfound trends.
Levels to watch for the North American forex pair:
Support Levels:
- Intermediate support zone & MA 50 1.3675 to 1.3686
- Higher Timeframe Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36
- 1.3540 War swing lows
Resistance Levels:
- 1.38 Key Resistance Zone
- 1.3770 4H 200-period Moving Average
- 1.39 psychological Resistance Zone
US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week
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North American upcoming Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar
Except for Canadian monthly GDP figures on Friday (expected at 0%), most of the Economic data releases will focus on the United States.
Tomorrow will see the release of the weekly Jobless Claims report expected at 245K (watch for any beat) and more market-moving, the US Q1 GDP figure expected at -0.2%.
Friday continues the development of inflation data review with the Fed’s favorite Core PCE monthly release expected to rise by 0.1% month-over-month to 2.6% on the year (releasing at 8:30 A.M).
Any beat will slow the pricing of more cuts that has been progressively shifting after a few FED speakers (particularly Waller) have been appearing with dovish comments.
Also do not forget the University-of-Michigan Consumer Sentiment release at 10:00 A.M. on Friday, expected at 60.5 – Markets will spot if fears from macroeconomic uncertainty continue to abate.
Safe Trades!
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