The US-Iran Ceasefire is still holding, but its threads are very thin.
Back-and-forth threats from the Iranian side concerning their disagreements with Trump’s 15-point plan have almost led to a catastrophe, but the US Administration seems quite serious about the ongoing peace negotiations.
While the White House originally denied Lebanon being part of the ceasefire agreement, Iran made it clear that they would not agree to a peace process with Israeli-Hezbollah tensions still blazing.
While this led to a striking build-up of tension pulling WTI Crude back above $100 (to $104), the US President and Israeli PM Netanyahu agreed to reopen diplomatic lines with the Lebanese government to ease this side of the battleground.
A significant easing in the narrative, which soothed Markets that were quickly returning to tension.
Still, Iran demands a complete ceasefire in Lebanon before the discussion properly starts, something that Israel has not yet communicated. Their demands are for Lebanon to get rid of Hezbollah members from the Ministry.
Shortly after the news, WTI quickly dropped and has officially settled right below the $100 psychological level, which allowed global Equities to push towards new cycle highs.
Even after topping, as Participants continue to seek greater certainty, Markets seem to have turned the page on the recent conflict.
Metals and Bonds have built a slow but steady rebound, Cryptocurrencies are rising again from the bottom, the US Dollar sags, and, before anything, Volatility has reached pre-conflict levels. Expectations are high, so traders will want to ensure sentiment doesn’t fail again.
