CTAs will continue to sell crude and industrial metals (x-copper) in most scenarios for prices by this time next week. In the imminent term, CTA selling activity will continue to weigh on price action into the OPEC meeting, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Energy demand remains resilient
“While markets will struggle to absorb additional barrels from OPEC+, energy demand remains resilient, US shale production is peaking, Venezuelan export licenses have expired, and geopolitical risks surrounding Iran remain elevated— all of which will likely act as a shock absorber to lower prices for the time being.”
“Beyond the seasonally strong summer months, however, OPEC exports should rise further and pressure global crude markets without a subsequent disruption to supply. The path to sustainably higher prices remains extremely narrow, and while speculative positioning is bearish, it is not currently vulnerable to a squeeze.”
