Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem is squeezing his money’s worth out of his appearance at the Calgary Economic Development meeting in Calgary, delivering further soundbites about the BoC’s stance in regards to inflation and tariffs to followup his earlier appearance. BoC Governor Macklem is selling a mutated forward guidance approach from the Bank of Canada that will shorten the BoC’s forecasting range.
Key highlights
Part of the February CPI release was expected.
February inflation has the bank’s attention.
We’re still expecting March CPI to be around 2.5%, February data hasn’t fundamentally changed our view.
I expect shelter inflation to come down gradually.
We’re not really seeing evidence yet that consumer prices are being affected by tariffs.
Broad-based and prolonged tariffs could lead to recession.
We’ve demonstrated that we can use our instruments to control inflation.
There are a range of possible outcomes. I don’t think anybody in the Governing Council can have a very high conviction about what the most likely outcome is.
Once uncertainty is over, we will move back more to a single projection for the Canadian economy.
As things become clearer, that could affect our policy decisions and what we decide to do.
We’re going to be proceeding carefully with any further changes to our policy interest rate.
I was not trying to convey the message that there is a higher chance of an unscheduled rate announcement.
