The Ceasefire still stands, but Markets are seeking further confirmation as US-Iran talks are set to proceed this weekend.
A significant barrier to the negotiations had been the ongoing Israeli attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the Islamic regime trying to hold onto its remaining strongholds in the Crescent.
Israel-Lebanon direct talks will begin on Tuesday, and strikes have been limited in the past 24 hours after a heated exchange between Trump and Netanyahu. Hezbollah continued waves of rocket and drone attacks since.
Still applying heavy leverage on the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the talks, only 4 tankers have crossed today, showing only minimal progress despite the ongoing truce.
While Iran has been pushing back on the discussions, creating internal tensions over who will be appointed to the Islamabad (Pakistan) talks, recent headlines have confirmed that it will participate.
Good news? Surely. This is better than nothing, particularly with the US side seemingly ready to make concessions to end the War sooner rather than later (after ~6 weeks of war).
But looking at the Stock Market today, traders have already priced them in and will now expect to see decisive progress in the coming days.
As per usual, the main point will be to see what’s next for the Strait of Hormuz and more particularly, Crude Oil prices, still stuck around the $98 to $100 tight range.
