Retail Trade Slides While Nonstore and Food Services Provide Support
Retail trade sales mirrored the headline figure, falling 0.9% in May. However, nonstore retailers—primarily e-commerce—rose 8.3% from a year earlier, while food services and drinking places gained 5.3%. These categories remain pockets of strength, supported by ongoing demand for convenience and leisure spending. Still, the decline in both total and core retail sales casts doubt on broader consumer resilience heading into the summer.
Fed Policy in Spotlight as Sales Miss Raises Growth Risks
This report arrives as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting. Policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, with a 99.9% probability already priced in. However, the weak control group—reflected in the core retail sales—pressures the Fed’s growth outlook. With Q1 GDP already revised lower and consumer spending projected to slow from 3.1% to 1.1% by year-end, a sustained cooling in consumption could influence the tone of the Fed’s statement.
The Atlanta Fed’s model currently projects a 2.1% contraction in Q2 GDP. Today’s weaker-than-expected sales figures may further support that view, particularly if revisions remain negative.
Market Forecast: Bearish for Broad Retail, Fed Messaging May Increase Volatility
The downside surprise in both headline and core sales reinforces a bearish outlook on retail and consumer discretionary equities. Traditional retailers and physical-store chains are likely to face pressure, while nonstore and food service sectors offer selective strength. Traders should prepare for increased volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies as the Fed responds to declining consumer momentum.
