On the radar
- Romania, Hungary and Slovakia will release retail sales in May (at 8 AM CET, 8.30 and 9 AM CET respectively).
- Hungary will publish industrial output growth in May, at the top of retail sales.
Economic developments
The EU27 and Eurozone series followed a very similar trajectory since 2015, with the Eurozone consistently recording slightly higher values than the EU average. Both indicators remained broadly stable between 2015 and 2019, before surging sharply during the pandemic period, reaching a peak in 2020. After a gradual saving rates have stabilized at levels above the pre-pandemic average. In recent years, saving rate has been roughly 2 percentage points higher compared to years prior to 2020. By early 2026, both measures edged down slightly. Overall, households’ financial buffers remain solid. However, if savings remain elevated for too long, it may also signal weaker consumer confidence and weigh on domestic demand. It seems that level of uncertainty and the series of economic shocks since pandemic make households to sustain higher financial buffer on recent years. Data for CEE region remains limited. Only Czechia, Hungary and Poland show the saving rate data. While Czechia consistently sustain very high saving rate (19% over last two years), in Poland, saving rate has been raising lately but compared to Czechia is at much lower level (close to 9% most recently).
Market movements
CEE currencies have been relatively stable in week-to-week basis, while long term yields have declined slightly throughout the week in the whole region. This week, there are central bank meetings in Romania, Poland and Serbia and we expect no change in key policy rate. In Czechia and Hungary, June’s inflation rate will be published. In Czechia, it will be interesting to hear comments from central bankers, if there are any following inflation data, about future monetary policy direction as Czechia’s central bank was the only one to raise key policy rate in June. As for other news, Hungarian government has filed a constitutional amendment will terminate President Tamas Sulyok’s mandate less than three years into his five-year term. The law is likely to be passed given the government holds supermajority.
