2026 is shaping up to be a chaotic year for traders.
Between record corporate issuance signaling high-paced economic activity, the US capture of a head of state in Venezuela (combined with threats to other nations), and now revolts in Iran, geopolitics has firmly taken the lead in driving volatility.
Our recent edition on Black Gold suggested that despite higher supply expectations following the Maduro capture—which pointed toward better exploitation of Venezuela’s vast reserves—structural catalysts would emerge to prevent a slide to fresh 2025-2026 lows.
And emerge they did.
The biggest catalyst, of course, is the turmoil in Iran.
Despite sanctions from OECD countries, Iran remains a critical supplier to the world’s largest consumers, particularly China, which regularly absorbs 80% to 90% of the nation’s ~4M barrels per day production.
The risk premium, however, extends beyond simple production figures which haven’t shown much change for now.
Iran holds immense strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point they have used to block oil tankers and global sea traffic in the past.
This threat adds a geographic premium to the price of every barrel, even if domestic production continues uninterrupted.
Looking back to the “12-Day War,” WTI surged from $62 to $76 in a matter of days. With that precedent in mind, traders are actively positioning themselves for a potential price explosion.
Looking back to the 1979 revolution, participants fear that Oil workers may join the Revolt, as the Iranian government already killed an estimated +10,000 civilians in the protests.
Let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the WTI (US) Oil to determine if technicals point to continued upside or if prices are approaching relative extremes.
