The Fed Funds Rate is unchanged at 4.25% – Oil has been rallying since the release and other assets are still trading at similar levels as before the release
Don’t forget to tune in to FED Chair Powell’s speech starting at 2:30 P.M.
You can access the Powell livestream here.
Current Meeting Projections
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Economic Projections released by the Federal Reserve at the June 2025 Meeting
Last SEP projections
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March 2025 Meeting Summary of Economic Projections – Source: Federalreserve.gov
Focus now turns to the 2025 outlook, especially in light of the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which was released during a period of heightened uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy.
Since then, a number of trade agreements have been reached, easing concerns that dominated earlier this year. The so-called “TACO Trump” headlines have rattled markets, and fears of a no-deal scenario are quickly fading into the rearview.
The FED pointed toward a 2.7% year-end PCE Inflation at the last release and some cooling in upcoming years. Core PCE is the FED’s favorite inflation measure as they use this data for that side of their Inflation-Employment Dual Mandate.
Also, look at the Projected FED Funds Rate for the end of 2025, 2026 and the longer-run (“Neutral Rate”). Any change in this will move markets as cut expectations adjust.
Expect volatile flows – Safe Trades!
Pre-FOMC Cross-Asset Performance
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Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView
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