The North American session has been quite volatile as stock indexes recovered from earlier losses. The German DAX, up close to 200 points in the day, is leading all indexes. European stocks are closing green, dragging up sentiment and North American stocks. The Canadian Index TSX is also breaking all-time highs.
Mixed sentiment in Markets
Commodities, stocks, and currencies all tell differing stories. The Japanese yen is leading all currencies as majors take a more defensive stance, with the Swiss franc closely tied. Commodity currencies such as the Australian Dollar or the Kiwi are lagging on the day.
Stock indices and their futures recovered losses from the Asian session as rumours of a Trump deal with Iran provoked a swift change in improved sentiment. These news are surfacing as President Trump continues his visit to Middle Eastern nations to meet with leaders and discuss energy. This led to Oil prices plunging about 2.2% on the day, as a deal would imply a greater supply, and oil hasn’t been trading well on supply fears recently.
A less visible S&P index, the Canadian S&P/TSX stock Index, also broke an all-time high today, reaching a high of 25,875. These highs were attained on January 30th before a significant correction (14.1%!) led by Trump’s tariff menaces hit its climax.
Safe-Haven assets are also trading strongly in today’s session, with gold up 1.2%, recovering some of the past week’s losses. Treasury Bonds are also notably up on the day, a rare occurrence in the past few weeks, led by the long-end 30-Year Bonds up 0.91%.
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North American Economic Data recap
Thursdays are as usual filled with economic data in the North-American Session.
The US released key data such as Retail Sales, up 0.1% beating the unchanged consensus, followed by the release of the Core PPI at -0.4%, news welcomed by markets as inflation fears are abating. It is important to note although that the impact of tariffs will take time to reflect in data, therefore PPI will be important to track in upcoming releases.
Less market moving data was also released, with Weekly Jobless claims that came at 230.5K vs 227.3 last week, NAHB Housing Market Index at 34 (previous 40) and Industrial Production came unchanged (vs -0.3% in the previous release)
Canadian data released Housing Data with 278.K beating the 227.5 expectations which may have contributed to boost its stock market performance.
Fed Chair Powell also spoke at the FED’s Framework Review with no market moving comments.
Upcoming at 2:05PM EST there will be a speech from Fed Barr’s.
Daily Chart Insight – US Oil
Oil is in the looks today with volatile swings.
After a strong recovery in the beginning of the week with tariff fears abating, more supply fears came to sap Oil’s recovery and this led to a 2.2% correction.
Oil recovered at a key pivot of 60.50, level where prices bounced a few times as seen in the chart below.
Bulls will be looking for a break and close above 62.38 on the mid-term resistance, with even more strength above the key resistance at the 64.00 Psychological level.
In the meantime, the bearish rejection this morning point to a more rosy price action for the WTI.
Bears will be looking for a break below the 60.50 pivot with next key support zone between 58.4 to the 58.00 psychological level
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US Oil Hourly Chart. Source: Trading View
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