EUR/USD Current price: 1.1510
- Central banks take the spotlight as the Middle East war intensifies.
- The United States Producer Price Index soared in February to 3.6% YoY.
- EUR/USD turns south amid signs of rising inflation in the United States.
The EUR/USD pair trades uneventfully, a handful of pips above the 1.1500 threshold, as investors await the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s monetary policy decision later in the day.
In the meantime, the EU confirmed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% YoY in February, as previously estimated. The annual reading came in at 0.6% below the previous and expected 0.7%. Also, the United States (US) published the February Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 3.4% on a yearly basis from 2.9% in January, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.7% following the previous 0.5% increase, while the core annual reading jumped to 3.9% from a revised 3.5% in January.
US data has spurred a risk-off reaction, with Wall Street turning sharply lower and the Greenback turning higher across the FX board.
The Fed, however, remains the main event of the day, expected to announce no changes to monetary policy. Still, the central bank will release a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), in which policymakers reflect their macroeconomic expectations and could hint on future monetary policy decisions. Afterwards, Chair Jerome Powell will offer a press conference. Investors anticipate a hawkish shift amid the ongoing Iran war.
Other than that, the European Central Bank (ECB)is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. The scenario is pretty much the same, with no changes expected to the current rates, but a shift in policymakers’ outlook due to the Middle East war.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The near-term picture for EUR/USD is mildly bearish. The 4-hour chart shows the pair holds well below the 100- and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which both slope lower and cap the broader recovery attempts. Price also trades just above the 20-period SMA around 1.1490, now providing relevant near-term support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains positive but eases from recent highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreats from above 56 toward the mid-40s area, indicating fading upside pressure rather than bearish strength.
In the daily chart, EUR/USD stays bearish as spot holds below the downward-sloping 20-day SMA near 1.1650 and also trades under the flatter 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered around 1.1680–1.1690. This alignment of shorter and longer SMAs above price signals sustained selling pressure within a broader topping phase. Meanwhile, technical indicators gain downward traction below their midlines, hinting at further weakness before exhaustion emerges.
Immediate resistance appears at the 1.1600 figure, followed by the 1.1670–1.1690 price zone, where the 20-day SMA converges with the 100-day SMA, capping rebounds and defining the first hurdle for any corrective bounce. On the downside, initial support aligns with the recent low at 1.1417, with a break lower opening the way toward the 1.1360 area as the next bearish target. As long as EUR/USD trades beneath the 1.1680 resistance cluster, rallies are vulnerable to selling and the risk remains skewed toward a continuation of the decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
