- The Nasdaq 100 initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Thursday, only to give up those gains in pre-market trading.
- That does make a certain amount of sense considering that we have been sideways for a while, and we have something very important happening on Friday, which is the non-farm payroll announcement in America.
Expectations
While most traders expect to see the Federal Reserve cut rates in September, the Federal Reserve also will be paying attention to the jobs report. And that could give us a little bit of a heads up if you will, as to what monetary policy will be going forward because in general, people expect about a 98 % chance of an interest rate cut in September and then another one in December.
A lot of what we are about to see will be very sensitive to the employment situation in America, which really at this point in time has been fairly strong, truth be told, but we are starting to see some cracks in the wall. And if that’s the case, loose monetary policy might be coming.
Good News is Bad News? Or What?
The real question is going to be whether or not the market continues to see potential bad news as good news, or if they see bad news as bad news finally, because quite often what you will get is when the Federal Reserve finally starts to cut, markets will sell off because they start asking the question, what does the Federal Reserve know that we don’t? We’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. From a technical analysis standpoint, we’re sitting just above the 50 day EMA and the crucial 23,250 level. So, I’d lean more towards a bounce, but again, Thursday will be quiet, heading into Friday. We’ll just have to see how the first hour or two of market action after that jobs number ends up being. It’ll probably give you most of the information you know that you need. The market breaking down below the 50 day EMA opens up and move down to the 22,250 level. And if we do break higher, the 23,750 level is the initial target, followed by the 24,000 level.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
