As a trader, operating without the Commitments of Traders (COT) report during the recent 43-day government shutdown felt like flying a plane through a thick fog without a radar. When the CFTC finally resumed operations on November 13, 2025, we were met with a massive data vacuum that had left speculative “managed money” to operate under the radar for over six weeks.
The impact was immediately visible in the grains market; for instance, once the backfilled data started hitting the tape, we discovered a massive shift in soybeans, where funds had swung from a net short to a staggering net long of over 229,000 contracts. This “positioning shock” triggered sharp reversals as the market scrambled to realign with the reality of just how crowded those trades had become while the lights were off in Washington.
The recovery process has been a lesson in patience and “detective work,” as the CFTC opted to release the backlogged reports in chronological order rather than jumping to current dates. This meant that throughout late November and December, market participants were often trading based on snapshots that were weeks old, forcing us to rely on proxies like ETF flows, and the LME’s (London Metal Exchange) positioning data just to guess where the “big money” was leaning.
While the Commission managed to accelerate the schedule to get us current by December 29, the lag effectively extended the period of market opacity. For those of us in the pits or behind the screens, the shutdown serves as a stark reminder: when the primary barometer for speculative sentiment goes dark, the risk of a “volatility explosion” upon its return becomes the single most important factor to hedge.
