XAU/USD Current price: $4,555
- Concerns about Middle East war on pause, lingering in the back.
- United States employment-related data will grab some attention this week.
- XAU/USD retains its bearish bias despite bouncing from $4,500.
Spot Gold posts modest intraday gains on Tuesday, changing hands at around $4,550 per troy ounce. The precious metal quickly started the week with a weak tone, as tensions in the Middle East escalated. The XAU/USD pair fell towards $4,500 as hopes for a deal were diluted, while concerns about a breach of the ceasefire mounted on news that Iran attacked oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The United States (US) claims control of the Strait of Hormuz and launched a plan to escort neutral vessels through the conflict area, but it is far from a success, as passage remains utterly restricted on both sides. Finally, US President Donald Trump claimed the war will extend for “two or three” weeks, not for the first time he has made such a claim.
Persistent uncertainty on how things would unfold has supported the US Dollar (USD) at the beginning of the week. The USD corrective decline that started in Asia accelerated during American trading hours, following the release of US data. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed the sector lost momentum in April, as the index printed at 53.6, easing from the 54 posted in March.
The Greenback also retreated on solid stocks performance, helped by earnings reports, and stable Crude Oil prices. Still, concerns linger and are likely to keep the USD on the winning side.
From a fundamental point of view, market attention will remain on the Iran war, but US employment data will also grab investors’ eyes. The ADP Employment Change survey is scheduled for Wednesday, while the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be out on Friday.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, and according to the four-hour chart, XAU/USD retains a bearish near-term bias as price holds beneath a dense cap of moving averages. The 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,579.51 is the first barrier overhead, while the 200-period SMA at $4,652.00 and the 100-period SMA at $4,699.21 extend the broader corrective tone. Momentum indicators are subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovering around 44 and the Momentum gauge gaining downward traction in negative territory, hinting that upside attempts are likely to face selling pressure into these averages.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 20-period SMA near $4,579.51, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease short-term pressure and open the way toward the 200-period SMA at $4,652.00, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,699.21. Support comes at the $4,500 mark, where buyers have surged. Additional slides below such a mark could open the door for a steeper near-term decline.
Technical readings in the daily chart also indicate that XAU/USD is bearish. Spot holds above the 200-day SMA at $4,293.20 but remains capped by the descending short- and medium-term averages. The 20-day SMA at $4,702.36 and the 100-day SMA at $4,766.62 both cap advances. Finally, the RSI indicator and the Momentum indicator tick north below their midlines, reflecting the latest bounce rather than suggesting a firmer recovery underway.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
