See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Breaks Crucial $95k on US-China Trade Optimism
While XRP struggled, easing US-China tensions drove bitcoin (BTC) to $95,000. Despite Beijing denying claims of trade negotiations, President Trump’s softer stance on China lifted risk sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 1.26%, extending its winning streak to four sessions. Risk-on sentiment left gold down 0.89% at $3,319.
Market intelligence platform Santiment remarked on the shift in market mood, stating:
“Bitcoin’s unexpected breakout has flipped the script for the crypto community. Data shows a surge in optimism from the crowd as BTC rebounded above $95K for the first time since February. As for the level of greed being measured across social media, this is the highest spike in bullish (vs. bearish) posts since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024.”
BTC could reclaim $100,000 for the first time since February 4 if momentum holds.
BTC-Spot ETFs See Strong Inflows
Easing trade tensions and the upswing in risk appetite have fueled demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, crucial for BTC price trends. On April 24, net inflows totaled $442 million, following inflows of $917 million on April 23. April 25 inflows could extend the streak to six days. According to Farside Investors:
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net outflows of $108 million.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) saw net inflows of $19.9 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net inflows of $11.4 million.
- Excluding pending flow data for BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), total net inflows stood at $139.9 million.
Significantly, the US BTC-spot ETF market is poised to log its largest weekly net inflows since launching on January 11, 2024.
BTC Price Outlook: Key Catalysts Ahead
On April 25, BTC rose 0.82%, adding to Thursday’s 0.28% gain to close at $94,777, extending its winning streak to seven sessions.
Near-term trends hinge on a mix of geopolitical and legislative developments.
- Bearish Scenario: Escalating US-China trade war, Fed hawkishness, weak US data, legislative resistance, and ETF outflows.
- Bullish Scenario: Dovish Fed signals, de-escalation in the US-China trade war, upbeat data, pro-crypto legislation, and rising ETF inflows.
One such legislative driver is the Bitcoin Act, reintroduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis. The bill proposes that the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year lock-up. If passed, the bill could drive BTC to fresh record highs.
